Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s Probability of Winning Presidency Surges After Shooting Incident
Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s chances of reclaiming the White House have surged to an all-time high following a shooting incident at a rally in Pennsylvania. The incident, which left Trump injured but safe, has sparked a wave of speculation and activity in the political betting market.
According to traders on Polymarket, the probability of Trump winning the presidency has jumped to 70%, up from previous levels. The market saw a significant increase in “Yes” shares on the contract predicting Trump’s victory, with each share paying out $1 if the prediction comes true.
In the aftermath of the shooting, photos and videos of a defiant Trump with blood on his face circulated on social media, contrasting sharply with the recent focus on the perceived weaknesses of his opponent, President Joe Biden. The incident has reignited the political conversation and energized Trump supporters.
Notably, meme tokens inspired by Trump, such as MAGA and TREMP, saw a surge in value following the shooting, while a joke asset named after Biden, BODEN, experienced a decline. These meme coins have become a popular way for individuals to engage in a form of “betting market” on the election, although they do not pay out to holders based on election outcomes.
The shooting also led to the creation of new meme coins, some of which have drawn criticism for their poor taste. The overall cryptocurrency market, as represented by the CoinDesk 20 index, saw a positive trend in the wake of the incident, with Bitcoin also experiencing gains.
Polymarket, a platform for crypto-based prediction markets, has seen record trading volumes in 2024, particularly in relation to the U.S. presidential election. The company’s U.S. presidential winner contract has attracted a total of $252 million in bets, highlighting the growing interest in political betting.
Prediction markets like Polymarket are considered a more reliable indicator of sentiment and forecasting compared to traditional polls or pundits, as participants are financially incentivized to make accurate predictions. The recent events surrounding Trump’s shooting have further fueled speculation and activity in the political betting space.
